And then Nassim Nicholas Taleb states the following :
"Our world is dominated by the EXTREME - THE UNKNOWN - THE VERY IMPROBABLE (Improbably according to our current knowledge). [There is] the need to use the extreme event (Rare Event) as a STARTING POINT and not treat the RARE EVENT as an EXCEPTION to be pushed under the RUG".
What is a RARE EVENT which has the potential to INVALIDATE a GENERALIZED STATEMENT ?
A THANKSGIVING TURKEY was fed by a BUTCHER for 1000 days.
The Turkey made a GENERALIZED STATEMENT that BUTCHER LOVES TURKEY.
The one RARE EVENT that happened on the Thanksgiving day which Slaughtered him on the 1001'Th day INVALIDATED the GENERALIZED STATEMENT MADE BY TURKEY.
The above statement is from the Book - "The Black Swan".
FYI : This Black Swan has no relationship with the American Movie - The Black Swan.
THE BLACK SWAN is a book that was gifted to me by one of my reporting managers when i was in Singapore on a NEW YEAR DAY on Jan 1st 2012.
This book is written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Conclusion and Summary of the Book :
ONE single event can INVALIDATE a GENERALIZED STATEMENT derived from Millennia of confirmatory sightings.
Once upon a time everybody believed that ONLY WHITE SWANS existed.
There was a GENERALIZED STATEMENT that "ALL SWANS ARE WHITE" - Until the time one day a BLACK SWAN was spotted.
This ONE black swan INVALIDATED THE ENTIRE GENERALIZED STATEMENT.
I REPEAT - This ONE black swan INVALIDATED THE ENTIRE GENERALIZED STATEMENT.
A black swan according to the book is a RARE EVENT that is HIGHLY IMPROBABLE.
THE MEANING OF THE ABOVE STATEMENT : Thousands and Thousands of Instances of ONE THING does NOT DISPROVE THE OTHER.
How do we apply this concept to BUSINESS ?
Lets take a HOT EXAMPLE that is trending in the CORPORATE WORLD.
This is ONLY AN EXAMPLE !
Your organization received a certificate claiming that over 90% of the Employees believe that there is NO GENDER BIAS.
How do you interpret this STATEMENT ?
A MEDIOCRE who dominates says 10% that i LOST cannot change the AGGREGATE and he will GENERALIZE and make a STATEMENT that - "THERE IS NO GENDER BIAS IN MY ORGANIZATION".
He will treat the 10% as a THREAT ; As an EXCEPTION and PUSH THIS 10% INTO THE RUG.
In other-words he "ELIMINATES THE VOLATILITY" by PUSHING the 10% INTO THE RUG.
As per Nassim Nicholas Taleb ;
10% = BLACK SWAN = RARE EVENT = DISORDER = EXTREME.
90% = MEDIOCRE = MEANINGLESS AVERAGE.
THE BLACK SWAN INTERPRETATIONS :
We humans have BLINDNESS towards RARE EVENTS (10%).
The Reality is that EXTREMES (10%) matter a LOT more than AVERAGE (90%).
Eliminating 10% is called ARROGANCE.
Embracing the DISORDER of 10% should be the FIRST STEP.
An organization instead of celebrating the success of MEDIOCRE - AVERAGE 90% should consider that 10% as the STARTING POINT.
There are 2 kind of events in the world :
1.Organic Events = Organic Events that occurs NATURALLY = DISORDER = 10% = BLACK SWAN. Disorder will lead you to a DOMAIN called EXTREMEISTAN where the LEARNING is.
2.Engineered Events = Engineered Events perpetuated by Man = ORDER = 90% = WHITE SWAN.
ORDER will lead you to a land called MEDIOCRISTAN where everything is based on MEANING LESS AVERAGE.
90% OF ORDER = THEATRE !
CELEBRATION OF ORDER IS A THEATRE !
This post is not meant to Hurt anyone - It is my Point of View.
We behave like as if BLACK SWANS dont exist - BUT THEY CLEARLY DO.
What we see is NOT NECESSARILY ALL THERE IS.
The 90% story is a FALLACY STORY to FOOL YOURSELF. BUT DONT BE A TURKEY.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has introduced to a DISEASE called NEOMANIA in his book THE BLACK SWAN.
Lets take an example :
Hurray its INTERNATIONAL WOMEN's DAY.
There are 2 POWER PACKED PANELS who arrived to discuss WOMEN EMPOWERMENT.
We have A POWER PACKED PANEL No.1 lead by a DRAG QUEEN (A masculine power) and
We have POWER PACKED PANEL No. 2 consisting of the ones who were LUCKY ENOUGH to get educated in a Big School and of course the ENVIRONMENT they worked were FAVOURABLE to them.They acquired the LEADERSHIP POSITION.
Both the Panels REPRESENTS THE THEATRE = THE 90%
Both the Panels REPRESENTS A MEANING LESS AVERAGE OF 90%
Imagination :
What If i say that I LOST MY PROMOTION because of my - MARITAL STATUS - SINGLE UNMARRIED VIRGIN.
Will you BELIEVE ME ?
NO. You will not BELIEVE ME because you dont have the CAPACITY to buy an ABSTRACT IDEA - A RARE EVENT = DISORDER.
You only have the CAPACITY to buy a MEANINGLESS AVERAGE OF 90% = ORDER.
A MEDIOCRE will only believe in the MAJORITY ; he does not have the courage to THINK OUTSIDE THE AVERAGE.
The Great Man Nassim Nicholas Taleb also states the following :
EXAMPLE :
Let me introduce you all to the POWER PACKED PANEL 3 who is here to discuss BALANCE and WOMEN EMPOWERMENT.
I lead the Panel 3 - Iam a Single Unmarried Woman - Point to be Noted - Iam a Virgin.
My team consist of 10% - THE DISORDER - THE RARE EVENT. I have with me here -
1.Women who are Divorced
2.Women who are Separated
3.Women who are on Bench
4.Women who are widows
5.Women who are SINGLE even after crossing MARRIAGEABLE AGE like me.
The difference between Panel 2 and Panel 3 is that Panel 2 had access to a FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT ; but Panel 3 did not have an access to a FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT.
Both the Panels consist of LEADERS.
Kindly please note we dont belong to the THEATRE-90% ; we belong to the 10%.
We are not MEDIOCRES we are EXTREMIST.
The Great Man Nassim Nicholas Taleb also states the following :
Thank you for all your ATTENTION !
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